Eurolanche

Why the Avs probably miss the play-offs

After Minnesota's regulation loss against the Ottawa Senators last night, there is still some hope left that the Colorado Avalanche actually can make it to the play-offs. Nevertheless, sitting five points behind the Minnesota Wild with only five games remaining for the Avalanche, and four for the Wild, the chances are very slim. In this article we want to take a look at some of the factors that put Colorado in the tough situation of probably missing the play-offs by one spot. 

Looking back at it, the first game of the 2015-16 campaign seems like a bad omen and a perfect summary of how the season unfolded for the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs opened up the season at home vs the Minnesota Wild and looked like a very exciting team - for 45 minutes. Jarome Iginla, Erik Johnson, captain Gabriel Landeskog and John Mitchell scored their first goals of the season, giving the Avs a supposedly comfortable 4-1 lead after 40 minutes. Zach Parise's hat-trick, including the game-winning goal, and four third period goals by Minnesota, all scored within five minutes, led the Wild to a huge comeback win at Pepsi Center, and left the Avs back disappointed and without a single point.

Overall, the Avs will finish the season series against the Wild, their biggest rival in the fight for a Wildcard Spot, 1-4, the only win coming in OT. Therefore, the Avs picked up two out of ten points while the Wild gathered nine points in those games. Generally, one could gain the impression that the Wild have been in the Avs players' head ever since the heartbreaking game 7 loss in 2014 in which the Avalanche had four leads before losing in OT. Since then, Colorado went 2-8 versus Minnesota, and was shutout five times.

Issues holding onto leads have not only occured against the Wild, though. There have been several (key) games Colorado started off strongly before collapsing in the third period. Between the 27th of February and the 5th of March, the Avs blew three final periods, giving up two 2-1 leads and a 3-3 tie through 40 minutes. Those losses came in important games against the Detroit Red Wings in the Stadium Series Game, the Nashville Predators, and once again the Minnesota Wild. Not only do the Avs miss the points from those games in the attempt to secure a playoff berth, it seemingly also became a general issue. The Avs very often do not look comfortable with leads late in games.

Another striking problem over the course of this campaign has been the Avs' play against the bottom teams of the league. They lost all of their games against the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Columbus Blue Jackets, two out of three matchups with the Vancouver Canucks, and two out of five meetings with the Winnipeg Jets. All of those teams are very likely to end up in the bottom five spots of the league, and while the NHL is considered to be a well-balanced league a potential play-off team should not lose that many games against those teams.

After all, we might not be talking about the aforementioned factors right now, if the Avs had put together a better start to the season. At the end of October their record was 3-6-1, by the end of November they looked at a 9-14-1 record putting them into a tough spot after 24 games played. Back then, not many people expected the Avs to compete for a play-off spot at all. 

So, looking back on this almost completed season, the season series against the Minnesota Wild, who are very probable to secure the second Wildcard spot in the West now, the Avs' inability of putting together 60 minute efforts, playing down to weaker opponents, and a bad start to the season might be some of the reasons the Avs miss out on a postseason spot.

Tonight's matchups between the Minnesota Wild and the Detroit Red Wings, and our Colorado Avalanche and the President Trophy winner, the Washington Capitals, might either end the Avs' dream of reaching the play-offs, or keep our hopes alive. If Minnesota loses, and Colorado wins, the Avs would be trailing the Wild by three points, having a game in hand. Colorado and Washington face off at 9pm ET, 3am CET. After missing six straight games, Matt Duchene could be back for this game, trying to give the Avs' offense a much-needed spark.